Is It Doom and Gloom For the 2024 Legal Market?
Market and political forces, such as elections and peer firm hiring, play a role in law firm hiring.
With the experiences of the 2020 pandemic, and 2009, still situated in the back of the minds of many seasoned recruiters, a quarterly retraction of lateral moves can often elicit a knee-jerk response to start prognosticating the next legal market crisis before it even happens. As we’ve often pointed out in the past, these downturns are part of a complicated calculus of law firm hiring that involves the entanglement of market and political forces, including elections, peer firm hiring, internal productivity, and a vast array of other inputs. Moreover, the lateral market itself is an imperfect indicator, often lagging months and months behind true market trends.
These forces tend to balance themselves out in the long run as well, global market disruptions notwithstanding. For example, as one article noted, litigation hiring dropped precipitously from Q1 2023 to Q1 2024, by 24%. However, if we look at lateral demand in Q1 of 2024, litigation is trending up in “public” demand over the last three years. Publicly posted jobs did dip by 10.7% from Q1 2023 to Q1 2024, but using this data to estimate the full extent of lateral demand is problematic for several reasons.
Chief among these reasons is that many lateral opportunities are not publicized. Firms may be willing to be opportunistic for the right candidate, but not willing to expend the effort and manpower to wade through hundreds of lateral candidate resumes. They also may not want to be inundated by emails from recruiting firms they’ve never worked with and don’t know their track record of success. This gap between public job listings and true market activity highlights the indispensable role of a reputable and well-connected legal recruiter who can find these opportunities and advocate on your behalf, to get your resume in front of the firm’s key decision-makers.
Litigation aside, overall market conditions have macroscopically continued to improve over the last nine years. The data is noisy given the comparative dearth of lateral moves during the pandemic and the subsequent feast, and we expect a somewhat contemplative period as firms ensure stability after an unprecedented period of lateral movement. Associate movement is often a more sensitive barometer for market conditions as associate laterals take less time to execute and associates represent relatively fixed costs compared to their partner counterparts, who represent profit centers.
Nonetheless, in the first quarter of 2024, there were 1,578 associate moves, maintaining a level of stability that closely mirrors the 1,618 movements from last year’s first quarter This consistency allays some immediate concerns of a market slowdown and instead points to a robust demand for legal talent that has continued unabated. The first quarter of 2024 saw an impressive 809 partner moves, an increase from 721 in the same period the previous year. This trend is a strong indicator of ongoing strategic growth within law firms and a continued valuation of experienced legal expertise and new business.
Promotional trends within firms only further underscore this optimistic outlook. In early 2024, a striking 1,897 associates were promoted to partner, closely aligning with the 1,958 promotions from the year before. Additionally, a record 1,039 attorneys were promoted to counsel roles, the highest number recorded in the six years.
Another reason we expect 2024 will continue to grow at a sensible pace, is the upcoming election. Firms with entrenched corporate practices will likely be looking for post-November clarity on market conditions before committing to expansive hiring. Should firms feel optimistic, this will likely lead to a cascade of lateral movement after the election – all the more reason to get started now before you get lost in the shuffle.
With such granular demand that differs by specialty, market conditions, and experience, your best bet for making a lateral move is to team up with an experienced recruiter who can help you optimize your chances of success. At Lateral Link, we specialize our deep connections, our extensive track record of success, with profound market insights to give you a competitive edge in achieving your goals in career success.
For those seeking to advance their careers in law, we encourage you to connect with one of our experienced recruiters across our national platform at Lateral Link. Let us help you navigate and maximize your legal career.
