South Africa President Cyril Ramaphosa Monday released an expert report to the public regarding the July 2021 civil unrest in South Africa. The review was delivered to Ramaphosa on November 29, 2021 by a panel including Professor Sandy Africa as chair, advocate Mojankunyane Gumbi and former national intelligence officer Silumko Sokupa.

Civil unrest erupted in South Africa from July 8 to July 17, 2021. Over nine days, thousands were injured, 354 people died and the South African economy lost an estimated $3.2 billion.

Ramaphosa specifically ordered the panel to complete a “thorough and critical review” of security preparedness. The panel found that the local police response was ineffective, and it criticized police because “the looters continued to use the same modus operandi for the next 7 days or so, without the police substantially changing their plans.”

The panel also found fault with the National Security Council’s slow, albeit appropriate, response. It did, however, praise the South African Defence Force’s “timely and effective” reaction to violence. Overall, the panel concluded that “intelligence services failed to predict the nature, scale and modus operandi of the July violence.”

The report focuses mainly on responsive failures to violence but also addresses the underlying causes. The panel first identified several motivations for violence, including high unemployment, economic inequality, overcrowded and unhygienic living conditions, government corruption and state capture, COVID-19 restrictions, and perceived weakness of South Africa.

Further, the report creates a worrying picture for future violence in South Africa, reading, “[L]ittle has changed in the conditions that led to the unrest, leaving the public worried that there might be similar eruptions of large-scale unrest in future. The question, many argue, is not if and whether more unrest and violence will occur, but when it will occur.” As a solution, the panel urged South African authorities to give “more compassionate attention to ensure that all people can live in dignity.”

Human Rights Watch echoed this sentiment during the uproar, urging Ramaphosa to adopt “robust” measures to protect systemically undermined rights of South Africans rather than worsen the situation with excessive law enforcement.

On February 10, 2022, President Ramaphosa will deliver his State of Nation Address and is expected to discuss his government’s response to the report.